Andnbsp; It seems to be true indeed!
If the emperor's words are to be taken, if Zhuge Liang has the intention of invading the North, then the various fortifications in Guanzhong and Longyou, how would they know that they are under siege until the very last moment?
It's just like a supernatural story.
Cao Rui saw the worried expressions on the generals present, all of whom were members of the Cao and Xiahou clans, and silently sighed in his heart. It's no wonder that when Zhuge Liang made his first invasion of Wei territory, the Wei court was filled with panic and the three counties of Longyou surrendered without a fight. Wei had not even prepared for counterattacks against Sichuan's invasion.
Given that Cao Zhen, Zhang Ji, Xiahou Kang and others who have been stationed in Mengcheng for a long time are present, and considering that it is still more than a year before Zhuge Liang's invasion of Wei as per historical records, why not clarify our plans with them today? How should we handle the affairs in Mengcheng and how should we respond to the threat from Sichuan while also ensuring our attack on Wu?
Cao Rui coughed lightly, "Your Excellencies, among you all, who is most familiar with the geography of Yongliang?"
Cao Rui scanned the crowd, and at this moment, Cao Zhen, who was often used as a mouthpiece, looked over to Zhang He with a glance. Seeing this, Zhang He was helpless and had to initiate himself by bowing his hands and saying, "Your Majesty, I am somewhat familiar with the geography of Yongliang."
Cao Rui looked at Zhang He and said, "Well, I will ask you. If Zhuge Liang emerges from Hanzhong, how many routes can he take?"
Between Hanzhong and Guanzhong, there are the eight-hundred-mile Qin Plain that separates them. The climatic and environmental differences between south and north of the Qin Mountains are quite significant, so the Qin Mountains, along with the Huai River, have become the dividing line for the geographical boundaries between North and South China in later times.
Nowadays, the region south of the Qin and Huai rivers is also the geographical boundary for Wei forces to rely on in their battles against Shu Han and Wu.
In this era, when compared to the grandeur and magnificence of mountains and rivers, human power is indeed quite insignificant. A mountain or a river can often be more powerful than an army of a hundred thousand men.
Zhang He said without any hesitation, "Your Majesty, there are a total of five routes that can be traveled."
"From east to west, they are respectively the Ziwu Pass, Tangluo Pass, Bonxie Pass, Chenchang Pass, and Qiyanchuan Pass."
"Excluding the Qiyanchuan Pass that leads to Longyou, the remaining four routes all lead to Guanzhong."
Cao Rui said, "Four roads lead to Guanzhong, and one road leads to Longyou. Therefore, when planning the defense against Shu Han, we should divide it into two parts: Guanzhong and Longyou."
Zhang He responded, "That is correct. There are two roads connecting Guanzhong and Longyou: the Wei River Path and the Longshan Path. The Wei River Path twists and turns along the Wei River Valley and is difficult to travel, while the Longshan Path is quite spacious, making it very convenient for large armies to march."
Cao Rui continued, "General Zhang has summarized the situation well. I will ask you one more question: If you were Zhuge Liang and you wanted to attack our Wei empire, should you attack Guanzhong or Longyou?"
Zhang He was at a loss for words for a moment, then after thinking for a while, he said, "How can I know where Zhuge Liang intends to attack?"
Cao Rui turned to Cao Zhen: "What do you think, General Zhen? Where will Zhuge Liang attack?"
Cao Zhen also looked confused: "How can I know where Zhuge Liang wants to attack? If we consider military tactics alone, attacking Longyou and attacking Guanzhong each have their own merits."
Cao Rui laughed and shook his head, saying, "There are a total of five roads from east to west: the Ziwu Pass, Tangluo Pass, Bonxie Pass, Chenchang Pass, and Qiyanchuan Pass. I'm not sure where Zhuge Liang will attack either. But the routes he can take are only these five."
"Now, I want to ask you, which route is so difficult for Zhuge Liang that he cannot take it?"
The silence fell, and everyone was momentarily stumped by Cao Rui's question.
At this moment, Cao Hong bowed and said, "Your Majesty, although I am not as skilled in military operations as General Zhen or General Zhang (Zhang He), I believe that destroying the roads proactively would show our weakness to the enemy."
Cao Zhen and Zhang He were now somewhat unsure of the emperor's intention. Seeing Cao Hong ask, they did not speak and waited for the emperor's words.
Cao Rui shook his head slightly: "General Wei, I think that the concept of avoiding showing weakness to the enemy is simply a strategy used when two armies face each other and can either attack or defend, to avoid letting the enemy know our weaknesses and to preserve our own strength."
"If we are already weak, do we still need to put on a show of strength? Isn't that just pretending to be strong?"
Cao Zhen furrowed his brow upon hearing this: "Your Majesty, how can we be weak? The Shu Han are a small and weak country, they are the truly weak party."
"The Shu Han controls only one state and has suffered two devastating defeats at Beifang and Yiling. How can they muster the strength to attack our Wei empire?"
Cao Rui suddenly recalled a saying, though it's not quite fitting, but it has a bit of similarity: 'Weakness and ignorance are not obstacles to survival; pride is.'
Cao Rui cleared his throat and said, "At present, our Wei empire has 300,000 soldiers, most of whom are stationed in the Central Plains, Jingzhou, and the Southeast. The military forces in Yongliang are only 40,000 foreign soldiers and 40,000 local garrisons."
"General Zhen, if Zhuge Liang were to invade our Yongliang region, how many troops could he mobilize?"
Cao Zhen thought for a moment and said, "In the past, when Liu Bei attacked Hanzhong, the Shu Han army in Hanzhong was no more than 50,000 to 60,000 men, and it was already difficult to transport supplies. After suffering two major defeats at Xiangfan and Yiling, I believe that if Zhuge Liang were to advance from Qishan Mountain, he could at most mobilize 40,000 to 50,000 men."
Cao Rui shook his head after hearing what Cao Zhen said. Cao Rui remembered very well that in the original historical record, when Zhuge Liang made his first invasion of Wei territory, he mobilized a force of around 80,000 men.
Can four thousand men and eight thousand men be considered the same thing? With an eight-thousand-man force advancing from Qishan and entering Guanzhong, and considering only the two thousand foreign soldiers and two thousand local garrisons in Yongliang, all we can do is wait for reinforcements to arrive from the central army in Henan. Four thousand against eight thousand, isn't that still weak?
Cao Zhen's reasoning is actually not too problematic; it fits the normal estimation of the situation in Yizhou. It's just that at this time, the court officials of the Great Wei still didn't know how terrifying Zhuge Liang was. To carry both military and political responsibilities, to suddenly raise an army, and to be able to unite a compositionally complex Shu Han into a single force for a northern campaign is truly a hidden danger.
Cao Rui said, "I remember that the Minister Liu Ye commented on Liu Bei: 'Although Shu Han is weak and narrow, Liu Bei's strategy is to strengthen himself through military might, and he will certainly use many troops to show his strength.'"
"According to my judgment, since Shu Han claims to be the successor of Han and opposes our Wei empire, if they occupy a territory as bandits for self-defense, how can Zhuge Liang and Liu Shen, these foreigners, stay in Yizhou for a long time? They must strive to attack outwardly in order to unify internally and suppress unrest. It's impossible for them to only have 40,000 or 50,000 men."
"I believe that we should prepare for the possibility of Zhuge Liang leading all his troops from Yizhou to invade northward, with an army of 80,000 or even 100,000 men."
Hearing the emperor's somewhat exaggerated assumption, the officials fell into silence, for in their minds, Liu Bei was dead and Zhuge Liang was the regent of Shu Han. How could they launch a northern campaign without considering any repercussions? However, Cao Rui's previous assumption and statements undoubtedly pointed out the biggest threat to Wei's empire in Yongliang and in its western part.
Cao Zhen, lost in thought, suddenly had a thought. He was thinking that indeed, the emperor was holding a meeting here again. How could a twenty-something-year-old emperor simply want to have meals with us old officials?
